NB 10 Predictions for 2008

NB 10 Predictions for 2008


1) 80% Internet Access and More
2) Phone-on-Net, Net-on-Phone
3) Mobile Networking
4) IPTV Video Downloads
5) Net Literacy Becomes an Issue
6) Mobile Content Explosion
7) Buzz Increases
8) Beyond the Laptop
9) Delivery Divide for Net Content
10) Gaming Is a Bigger Deal

1) 80% Internet Access and More

Internet penetration? What is it? Well, if the question is, do people have access to the Internet, 80% or maybe even 90% of Irish will have. Especially if we recognise that the phone now carries Internet signals and emails. Also, if we recognise that there are café’s, schools, colleges and universities, friend’s houses, libraries and so many other areas to sit, type, read and watch online content.

When it comes to broadband, you can see from my previous posts that I think this is much higher penetration wise than is currently being measured… but, I also think Internet penetration itself is being massively underestimated.
So, 100% access to the Internet? Maybe not 100%, but a lot!


2) Phone-on-Net, Net-on-Phone

This will be a time where mobile net use will come into its own. Huge marketing drives are making it common knowledge that you can do so much netwise on the little yoke in your pocket.
iPhone will bring this home to the Irish market in a big way. The phone is no longer a phone, but a pocket laptop phone PC thingy. With WiFi and/or 3G, the world of Internet pages is your oyster.


3) Mobile Networking

A new but a cool thing that changes the way we think about the web, and our phone. Where are your friends these days? Mobile Bebo, Facebook and whatever takes your fancy are on your phone. Twitter can give you some information, but what about colleagues? Or people in a different city? Well, mobile networking links with GPS phone location information, and you’ll can to see where your friends are, and, because your phone has been located, you’ll receive ads from the café across the street. The phone tells the website you are on where it is.

4) IPTV Video Downloads

Very cool video on your phone. You’ll need Wifi hotspots for streaming currently, as most phones don’t have a 3G capacity, and the cost based on current billing would be prohibitive. With WiFi, it isn’t though. Ads in videos and TV content will be pre-roll, post-roll, or interstitial, and will give a good idea of how much of the video is actually watched. Downloaded video won’t tell you much though.

5) Net Literacy Becomes an Issue

Some people and ad agencies too, just don’t ‘get’ the net, and probably never will. It’s their second language, at best. They could be said to be a real world monoglot. The truth is, if you don’t live in the net, you don’t get the net. In the net? Well, for this sort of literacy and fluency I’m saying you have to acknowledge that the Internet is an experience, not a set of facts or reference points, like other one directional flat media. Experiential knowledge!
Imagine you are talking to someone who’s got a brochure of Paris, or who’s Googled it, when you’ve actually sat outside the Pompidou centre watching the performers, eating your baguette, and drinking cheap wine. You get it, and you can tell pretty quickly they’re making it up and don’t have the slightest clue of this rich, stimulating, interactive space. Computer and net illiteracy is immediately apparent to the native. All it takes is a misused buzz word, or someone trying to sound in-the-know, and they are rumbled. So blaggers, don’t blag about how much you know about the net. It’s so obvious and so sad. Worse, if you’re the media business, once a client knows you don’t know, your credibility is completely shot.

Can you become a native speaker? Well, if you change your lifestyle completely, give it loads of time, and try to learn as much as you can as you go - yes. If not. No. Kids have an advantage, but they still have to do the work, and spend considerable time in net country.

6) Mobile Content Explosion

The net goes mobile. The screen gets smaller. The net and phone can do new things together − cool things. Mobile net content is different, because it’s consumed with different hardware, software and in a different physical context, and the content has to reflect this. Mobile content provision is set to become the new big thing for 2008.

7) Buzz Increases

Much excitement. Not quite a la 1998, but close, and a rather slower build about better businesses and business models that make real money and reach real people. The buzz online increases too as Web 2.0 becomes less of a buzz word, and more of a commonplace, with sites seamlessly linked to social networks, UGC, photos , digs and rating sites. The future is buzz, the future is net buzz.

8) Beyond the Laptop

Laptops? Great! I love them. But, they are still really quite big. I know, I’m using one now. But mobile web and pocket PC means they’ll look even bigger. So, they’ll shrink and slim down to net size 0. Not much of a prediction, things are getting smaller you’d think, but I recently purchase a foldaway keyboard for my PDA. Now I don’t need a laptop most of the time, because I can do pretty much the same stuff out and about. So, it’s not so much that laptops are getting smaller, or lighter, it’s that phones and PDAs are taking their place in a mobile phone/PC marketplace. Convergence is becoming physical, as laptops get smaller, while phones get smarter.

9) Delivery Divide for Net Content

Net content delivery used to mean a server, some files, and a request from a computer for a standard format. Now, this has fragmented beyond recognition. There is several servers, maybe not belonging to you, presenting some of your content, and feeds and links from elsewhere to networks for PC and mobile screens. Videos are embedded from YouTube and other to stream video content you may, or may not have produced. Video delivery is also divided between streamed and downloaded, the advantage being streamed means an advertiser can gauge if the ad was actually seen.
A second divide? It only takes one literate individual a few days to build the most complex and rich online experience, leaving even giant corporates to flounder in the tedium of web 1.0 brochure land.

10) Gaming Is a Bigger Deal

Gaming is the biggest thing to hit IP and the entertainment Industry, since the Internet itself and maybe moving pictures before it. It presents media buyers with new challenges like content and ad delivery, demographic reporting and automated tracking, streaming versus downloaded delivery, and real time playing and reporting. Online and offline IP facilitated gaming has changed the way many of us understand games, entertainment, film and even the narrative form − forever.

Twitter in Plain English

Broadband by Any Other Name Would Work as Fast

I was intrigued by recent figures from Comreg. They showed many impressive percentages, but in my opinion give a very unclear picture of Internet access and use in Ireland. The problems stem from three sources: − the definition of broadband, the obsession with ‘at home’ connections, and the research method (door-to-door).

These three issues combined lead me to the conclusion that we are significantly underestimating broadband use in Ireland and Internet use in general.
The report starts by stating that 54% have access to the Internet as do 48% of households.

Out of those who access the Internet, the percentage who connected with a home broadband connection is 52% (eircom broadband). 9% connect through wireless broadband, 9% with WiFi, and 6% with ISDN. 3% connect with cable (NTL) and 1% with a mobile broadband connection (3G).

The problem is that, with the exception of ISDN, all of the connections above are broadband, but by another name. (ISDN is midband). The term ‘broadband’ refers to the speed of the connection, (anything over 512kbps), regardless of the mode of connection. It doesn’t matter if the connection giving that speed is wireless, mobile, via a cable, Wifi or 3G. If they invent some new connection type next year, and that delivers data at more than 512kbps… that’ll be broadband too. Based on these figures, and with this more accurate definition, the total broadband connectivity of Internet users is actually 75%, − that is, 75% of Internet users use broadband, and this is out of 54% of the total population who have Internet access. Does this include broadband 'at work', cafe, schools and colleges...? These, in my opinion, will take care of most of the rest. In short, very few Irish Internet users will be accessing the Internet through anything other than a broadband connection. They may not be at home at the time, but that’s not the point, is it? It’s also true that mobile broadband has proved to be a lot more cost effective and efficient solution lately. If you’re a student, or you know which café to visit, it’s probably free! Other research shows that some are using the one broadband connection for TV, music downloads, Skype (VOIP) phone calls, radio and office/education purposes. And why not. It’s so much cheaper (NB/MIR 2007/1).

The report says that only 13% have dial up speed at home. I think that some of these may also have broadband at work, or university, or with Wifi through a laptop. The report doesn’t clarify. But, I’m more inclined to believe the number with only dial up access to the Internet is actually much smaller.

The report then says that only 4% say their broadband speed is 512 kbs or less, but this wouldn’t be broadband speed anyway. 28% say their connection speed is between 1 and 3mbs, which is a good workable speed, and 18% between 4 and 6Mbs, which is pretty fast. But intriguingly 51% of broadband users don't actually know the speed of their broadband connection at home. This begs the question − why do so many people not know the speed of their broadband at home? Are the researchers reaching the right people in the household? The ones who set up the connection? I think it’s a problem to be explored in more depth, and it may be a limit of door-to-door research. I’d have expected that more people would know their net speed, but this report suggests that that this is not the case. (Perhaps it’s simply the case that mobile broadband users aren’t at home.)

Growth, Drivers and the Future

Younger users’ consumption of online gaming, uploading photos, downloading videos and use of VOIP is driving increasing broadband speeds. An increase in the choice of connection vehicles, such as WiFi and mobile is also aiding penetration. Increasing levels of home broadband usage will soon affect bandwidth (contention) and home broadband speeds, though, currently most are happy with their home Internet connection. 3G is unlikely to encounter have such bandwidth issues in the foreseeable future, because there are no wires.

I predict the next year, especially with Christmas, will see an enormous growth in mobile broadband penetration nationally necessitated by poor home broadband access, and must have gadgets like iPhone and Vodafone / 02 3G. There will also be a huge growth in Internet access and use. The satisfaction levels with these modes of Internet connection are very high. Growth will happen mostly amongst younger groups, and those who don't own their own home. While such penetration is only at 1% currently, I think 3G could grow to as much as 10% or greater, bringing total broadband penetration/access among Internet users toward 85%, and total Internet use towards 65 or even 70% (taking into account the growth of non mobile access sectors). So many free Wifi hotspots have sprung up in Dublin in the last year and I’m sure the number will only increase. (This is huge, as, after all, Dublin is where half the county lives or works.) The online gaming industry will probably push Internet and broadband further, again, driven by the Christmas season. We can expect to see growth in Mobile Video and IPTV and these will increasingly be 3G enabled for many segments.

Some say that broadband speed is dropping, but this is a mistake stemming from the fact that they are only looking at individual cases of connection problems, and ‘at-home’ broadband. At-home broadband is becoming a largely irrelevant concept as laptops are increasingly prevalent and net enabled phones, or smartphones become commonplace. At the same time they note that dial up Internet access, and even fixed line telephone use is falling, while VOIP is growing. There’s a need to join the dots here. If 29% are making VOIP calls elsewhere and through other means... they are, of course, accessing the net elsewhere at broadband speed, and no doubt through the same mechanisms. It's the only way to get Skype to work properly.
iPhone and 3G, will push broadband and Internet penetration further in the coming year. Such must-have gadgetry has always driven technology take-up and net use just as the iPod made mobile music and related services like iTune super-popular. Downloaded mobile video and TV will also grow, and is gaining traction in countries such Denmark, Austria, Germany and Finland.