Broadband by Any Other Name Would Work as Fast

I was intrigued by recent figures from Comreg. They showed many impressive percentages, but in my opinion give a very unclear picture of Internet access and use in Ireland. The problems stem from three sources: − the definition of broadband, the obsession with ‘at home’ connections, and the research method (door-to-door).

These three issues combined lead me to the conclusion that we are significantly underestimating broadband use in Ireland and Internet use in general.
The report starts by stating that 54% have access to the Internet as do 48% of households.

Out of those who access the Internet, the percentage who connected with a home broadband connection is 52% (eircom broadband). 9% connect through wireless broadband, 9% with WiFi, and 6% with ISDN. 3% connect with cable (NTL) and 1% with a mobile broadband connection (3G).

The problem is that, with the exception of ISDN, all of the connections above are broadband, but by another name. (ISDN is midband). The term ‘broadband’ refers to the speed of the connection, (anything over 512kbps), regardless of the mode of connection. It doesn’t matter if the connection giving that speed is wireless, mobile, via a cable, Wifi or 3G. If they invent some new connection type next year, and that delivers data at more than 512kbps… that’ll be broadband too. Based on these figures, and with this more accurate definition, the total broadband connectivity of Internet users is actually 75%, − that is, 75% of Internet users use broadband, and this is out of 54% of the total population who have Internet access. Does this include broadband 'at work', cafe, schools and colleges...? These, in my opinion, will take care of most of the rest. In short, very few Irish Internet users will be accessing the Internet through anything other than a broadband connection. They may not be at home at the time, but that’s not the point, is it? It’s also true that mobile broadband has proved to be a lot more cost effective and efficient solution lately. If you’re a student, or you know which café to visit, it’s probably free! Other research shows that some are using the one broadband connection for TV, music downloads, Skype (VOIP) phone calls, radio and office/education purposes. And why not. It’s so much cheaper (NB/MIR 2007/1).

The report says that only 13% have dial up speed at home. I think that some of these may also have broadband at work, or university, or with Wifi through a laptop. The report doesn’t clarify. But, I’m more inclined to believe the number with only dial up access to the Internet is actually much smaller.

The report then says that only 4% say their broadband speed is 512 kbs or less, but this wouldn’t be broadband speed anyway. 28% say their connection speed is between 1 and 3mbs, which is a good workable speed, and 18% between 4 and 6Mbs, which is pretty fast. But intriguingly 51% of broadband users don't actually know the speed of their broadband connection at home. This begs the question − why do so many people not know the speed of their broadband at home? Are the researchers reaching the right people in the household? The ones who set up the connection? I think it’s a problem to be explored in more depth, and it may be a limit of door-to-door research. I’d have expected that more people would know their net speed, but this report suggests that that this is not the case. (Perhaps it’s simply the case that mobile broadband users aren’t at home.)

Growth, Drivers and the Future

Younger users’ consumption of online gaming, uploading photos, downloading videos and use of VOIP is driving increasing broadband speeds. An increase in the choice of connection vehicles, such as WiFi and mobile is also aiding penetration. Increasing levels of home broadband usage will soon affect bandwidth (contention) and home broadband speeds, though, currently most are happy with their home Internet connection. 3G is unlikely to encounter have such bandwidth issues in the foreseeable future, because there are no wires.

I predict the next year, especially with Christmas, will see an enormous growth in mobile broadband penetration nationally necessitated by poor home broadband access, and must have gadgets like iPhone and Vodafone / 02 3G. There will also be a huge growth in Internet access and use. The satisfaction levels with these modes of Internet connection are very high. Growth will happen mostly amongst younger groups, and those who don't own their own home. While such penetration is only at 1% currently, I think 3G could grow to as much as 10% or greater, bringing total broadband penetration/access among Internet users toward 85%, and total Internet use towards 65 or even 70% (taking into account the growth of non mobile access sectors). So many free Wifi hotspots have sprung up in Dublin in the last year and I’m sure the number will only increase. (This is huge, as, after all, Dublin is where half the county lives or works.) The online gaming industry will probably push Internet and broadband further, again, driven by the Christmas season. We can expect to see growth in Mobile Video and IPTV and these will increasingly be 3G enabled for many segments.

Some say that broadband speed is dropping, but this is a mistake stemming from the fact that they are only looking at individual cases of connection problems, and ‘at-home’ broadband. At-home broadband is becoming a largely irrelevant concept as laptops are increasingly prevalent and net enabled phones, or smartphones become commonplace. At the same time they note that dial up Internet access, and even fixed line telephone use is falling, while VOIP is growing. There’s a need to join the dots here. If 29% are making VOIP calls elsewhere and through other means... they are, of course, accessing the net elsewhere at broadband speed, and no doubt through the same mechanisms. It's the only way to get Skype to work properly.
iPhone and 3G, will push broadband and Internet penetration further in the coming year. Such must-have gadgetry has always driven technology take-up and net use just as the iPod made mobile music and related services like iTune super-popular. Downloaded mobile video and TV will also grow, and is gaining traction in countries such Denmark, Austria, Germany and Finland.