Friday, 26 September 2008

Visiting the Mobile Marketing Conference

I went to the excellent Mobile Marketing Conference in the Gresham yesterday, organised by Dan Morrissy, it was a real eye opener, and a great conference.

Picture the scene: cynical media measurement guy (me) sits at back of hall with no less than four net connection tools at his finger tips. I was at a conference, but I was ready for anything. My shiny new and oh-so-lovely 3G iPhone which requires a blog post all of its own; my recently out-of-date XDA orbit, which I still love for all its windows mobile features, though it only connects at the speed of Edge, or GPRS unless you're borrowing someone’s free WiFi; my funky little Vodafone 3G modem for the lappy, and the Gresham free hotspot I wasn’t banking on. Vint Cerf would’ve been impressed. What could go wrong? Well, I forgot my power cables and as luck would have it I would be offline in approximately 22 minutes, if I didn’t use the machines for anything. At all. If I did? 3. OMG. I quickly get them couriered to reception and it was a good job... as emails needing immediate attention streamed in throughout the day like a child’s runny autumn nose. Everytime I thought I’d got it all mopped up... there was another little drip starting that was only going to get bigger if I didn’t get a good blow in right now.

All these phones and connections and I was at a conference about phones, and connections. Christ. I really thought I’d had enough of technology as a whole for one day, but the quality of the speakers was nothing short of utterly compelling. They were all saying different things. All were coming at the topic from different angles and all agreeing somewhat while defending their own patch as if there was a siege on, but I felt they were just not putting all the bits together to get a wholistic view. That was for the audience. It’s not an industry that meets often, which is why such conferences are important. And, it’s a new industry, which means that, with a few notable exceptions, many have been working in isolation to carve a business out of their slice of their vision of how the business of mobile advertising and market will work, and works best and, of course, trying to put bread on the table. New businesses need to turn a buck, or they quickly become no businesses. Quality of note came from Ogilvy, Parvenio, Puca, Return2Sender and Peter McPartlin and many others were inspiring, interesting and entertaining.

One speaker (Mark Congiusta from Irish International if I remember rightly) started by saying... “Just so you know, Google is getting into the mobile space, so everything is going to be OK.” All laughed, because thats what most of us felt. If the big G is getting involved, they have a plan... a huge one that governments couldn’t even afford, couldn’t even understand in fact. A plan that will fix the mobile phone market just like they fixed the Internet. And Google is even bidding for radio spectrum in the states. Oh... Those guys. It’s so scary when people that are so rich and successful do stuff we haven’t even thought of. You have to love them or hate them... and they don’t care either way. How cool it is to have a kid in your class who’s that big and smart and potentially dangerous. Stockholm syndrome is inevitable.

There was some confusion initially as to whether the GPhone was a phone, or an operating system. Bit of both? Well, no. It’s a phone that has the operating system – Android – on it. Google seems to be trying to pull the MS Dos trick from yester year out of their wizard bag. Get everyone using the same operating system, or one of a few, and, as happened with choo choo trains, then we’re all sitting on the same gauge line and can start to concentrate on designing better rolling stock. Think about it. Isn’t it wonderful for home computer users there are only really three operating systems? PC (with Microsoft, windows, XP or Vista), Mac (with Mac OS), and Linux (with open source resilient free systems so popular for notebooks in the developing world, on servers and with the Asus eee). We have Bill Gates and MS DOS to thank for that. It’s an utter disaster in the world of the mobile on the other hand. Someone said casually there were around 1500 handset types. Jesus wept.

And the carriers don’t talk to each other, so there’ll be no joy soon from there. Each carrier will have god knows how many phones they’re selling, or has sold in the last few years. When you speak to them, they know everything about their users, but there are two problems. They’re only talking about their own users, not the users of other carriers. Of course, I hear you say... but no. It’s a mess. And worse than that. They can’t really text all their users with ads. It’s against the law. Users have to go to the mobile home page portal. Wisps of memory come to mind of the sunny Internet days of the Internet hompage giants, Oceanfree, IOL and Eircom.net. Back when everyone was on dial up. In fact because there were only three pages that almost everyone had to go to at some stage, the JNIR online sample was an extraordinarily valid one for its time, and the online more robust than the offline. But, thank god, all of that has changed. People choose their own homepage, because they know how to use the net and because they can access it in so many ways, and they’ve discovered the wonders the web has to offer, not just the quality of the default telco portal.

One speaker from Parvenio cut to the truth this fragmented mobile landscape gives us. Let’s say there is a campaign with a cool creative. Carrier: “we have 134,000 users for this target market”. Advertisers: “Wow, so, I can reach 134,000 with my ad then?” Carrier: “Em... no. Not all visit the homepage. 18,000 do though.” Advertiser: “Oh, 18,000. Big difference. And they’ll be able to watch the video too?” Carrier: “Em... no. Not all the phones will be able to show the video.” Advertiser: “Oh, right, of course. Different phones have different capabilities. So, how many will be able to see it? 15,000? 13,000?” Carrier: “Em.. no. Not that many.” Advertiser : “Aren’t you going to tell me?” Carrier: “Do I have to?” Advertiser: “ I think you do actually.” Carrier: “OK. Be gentle. Nine.” Advertisers: “Nine thousand?” Carrier: “No. Nine. JUST NINE OK?”

With all those phones, and different formats of creative, and different operating systems, and carriers that don’t talk to each other and agree some general standards – things could be seen to be a bit of a mess in the telco portal arena.

OK. But I have an iPhone. (Yey!) It’s my mini-Mac, my iPod in my pocket and I can choose my own homepage. And, I think, come Christmas time when hundreds of thousands, of iPhone style mobys are sold, most people will have left the portal homepage too, and will just Google and YouTube throughout the day. For example, I read the Irish Times on my phone on the bus on my way home while listening to the inbuilt iPod... very comfortably. I checked my mail. Sent and received texts. Simple, happy, and all with the one device. So, because there is a much better way, this homepage mobile portal situation just can’t last. Can it. It’ll get a whole lot better very quickly. Digital technology is like that.

Definitions:

3G provides enough bandwidth to allow users to stream video, receive TV signal, send large files and of course make voice calls.
3.5G provides improvement to voice calls, two way video calls, mobile TV, mobile broadband to laptops, and lots of other stuff requiring a superfast download and upload speed. 14 megabites per second download. Its fast!

You have to think of what thing that mobiles do best. If it’s not a full 3G mobile web smartphone, like the iPhone, that thing is SMS. There are opt in short code campaigns. Bar codes pictures and vouchers too. Enter Eamonn Hession and Donald Douglas who swept any cynicism out of the room and down the corridor. Response and Targetting SMS. Great campaigns, case studies, wonderful entertaining creatives, targeted advertising for small groups, interruptive and not, and, especially when mixed with other media, a great investment with a greater return. And not much investment too. Small beans when it comes to a full media mix, but it could be the plum on the icing on the pudding. From my point of view the best bit is its all elective. Opt in, free cool content. And, it should not be the result of the one big idea, Donald Douglas was keen to point out, but the result of dipping the toe in, or exploring, experimenting, trialling... having a go. Because sometimes when people are trying something new they try too hard to guarantee a success, they totally mess it up. They’ve over sold it internally, and they look really silly, or worse, they’ve blotted their copy book. Better to just do it, not expecting or investing too much... and, they assure us, you won’t be disappointed. It makes sense though. As with search engine advertising online when people are clicking when they are actually searching for something – elective mobile visitors are a better class of visitor. And someone electing to have something sent to their phone will be engaged, totally. It’s on their phone for heaven’s sakes. How could they not be engaged. Free content to be enjoyed, informed, shown.

Did anyone out there get shown the Carling ad on the iPhone. It’s really cool. It’s perhaps the first truly mobile viral video, the prize John West Salmon won in the netosphere back in 1998. It’s a simple, cool, cheap idea. All it took was innovation from someone who sat down and said... “What does this iPhone do? How can we use it to our advantage? And that’s what we ad agency heads have to think about for mobile phones. 120% of us have phones (some more than one) so what do they do... and how can we use it? What makes an iPhone special? It knows when it’s tilting. An internal gyroscope. OK. That's what sparked the Carling idea. But what’s special about phones? They’re in your pocket? Everyone has them? They’re mobile... and can be used in conjunction with location based systems or LBS (Big Brother can see the phone's location on a map).

Is that it? Is there an idea to spring from the obvious? People text their loved one? They buy new phones every year? Is that where the next bit of inspiration is that will make the big difference when mixed with the rest of a campaign – outdoor, TV, Radio,? It worked for Walkers recently. Text in your new Walker’s crisps recipe. This reached 5% of the English market. 5%? That is actually a huge huge number when you think about it. Especially for a crisp campaign. 3 million people actually. Yes, it was mixed with all the other media, but that’s fine. Mobile doesn’t need all the credit. But it made the whole campaign work really well. That’s the point.

OK. I was enthused. I was there... on song and my foot was tapping out the tune to a ringtone, the most expensive music on the planet. It was all going in, and then the venerable Peter McPartlin took the podium, and apologized in advance for the news he was going to impart to the floor. He put mobile in the context of all the other media available to advertisers. There were so many choices including outdoor (with maybe 20 formats), TV, Radio, Internet, Social Media, Google and more and more and more. His slide showed media planets spinning around the advertising budget sun, and I don’t think he used any other slides. It spoke both clearly and very loud. It stared at us. Mobile... that little planet there, on the outskirts of the solar system, like Pluto before it was demoted from being a planet to the status of 'big lump of ice'. The little freezing ex-planet Mobile. Spinning enthusiastically... and all alone. If it was a mobile, it would be out of coverage. This was a shock, and the very opposite of the all pervasive medium message we’d just received, but the point was along the lines that, all media compete for big budgets and like the Internet recently, mobile just doesn’t come out of the big bag, but rather the lets-give-it-a-go bag. The couple-of-grand-can’t-hurt bag. The will-make-me-look-open-minded-and-innovative bag. It was a great bit of clarity, there was no doubt.

And he was right, of course, but IMHO (in my humble opinion) he was wrong too. (Sorry Peter.) We shouldn’t see Mobile on its own, like a planet, but as part of a system, or a galaxy. On its own it is like looking at bus sides, or the back page of a regional mag as the risk, or the new thing when they all should be part of the system (campaign) that is part of a product's brand and market traction (galaxy) and all in turn part of the advertising universe. Typically its a single format. That is the point I would have thought. And sometimes, if a planet like cold planet Moby doesn’t have the creative gravitational pull to the central sun, it will drift off into space. And yes. Then the media buyers will say to themselves... Well, that didn’t work did it. I won’t be doing that again. But it won’t be the fault of the little moby service provider, but rather the fault of the planner, or the plan, or the strategist. Everyone has a mobile, so it’s up to all to come up with ideas that bring its strengths to play, and makes the campaigns better and improves the relationship with the brand. That’s the point. And there are lots of people, like Donald and Eamonn out there to help, but they too must keep things simple. They must make it turn on and offable. Simply buyable. Clearly reportable. In fact, Net Behaviour aim to find processes to make it possible to put mobile on every plan it suits, as we do with online advertising, search, SEO and research.

We need to step back. Recognise everyone has a mobile, and integrate. Not the creative from TV (though it can go on many mobiles), or the homepage portal into the digital buy, but rather integrate the thinking of the whole idea. Join up the dots so that the planets exist as a wholistic system. Ask some obvious questions. What’s so special about mobiles? Why does everyone have them? Why are they so important in people’s lives? Why are they using them while watching TV, or for listening to music or the radio. And making movies too. Recent research showed that if someone loses their wallet, they might report it missing within a day or so... maybe longer. If their mobile goes missing, the loss is reported within the hour. Other research showed that when women go on holidays, they were likely to be more upset if they left their mobile at home, than their boyfriend. We just need them so badly, so, how can advertisers, communicators and service providers leverage that need. What makes them so special? There must be a million good ideas out there, like there are little lumps of ice around the Sun. They just need to be linked. Do we have to wait for Google to link of them first? Will they promote mobile from being the distant lump of ice on Peter's chart to being Jupiter-sized planet a pervasive media yardstick indicates it deserves to be? Sheesh. I hope not. But if they do, I’ll congratulate them and secretly be sickened that I didn’t come up with the same idea or a better one sooner. Won’t you? So, for all our sakes. Think people. Think mobile. The future is out there... and it’s on the move.

Friday, 18 July 2008

Categorically Up the Creek: - What's Wrong with Google?

I just picked up a new(ish) telephone book and I said to myself - Silly me. The Internet is so much quicker. I’m an Internet guy. I can do this. So I went to Google instead.

I looked up Indian Restaurants Dublin because I had a babysitter for Saturday, and I got a list of all of the services which mentioned Indian and Restaurant, and Dublin in the order of who’d visited them most often. Interspersed with actual restaurants which provided Indian cuisine was an encyclopaedia reference for India, a Bollywood site and a bloody map of India. Then some joker had written a site slagging off Indian restaurants. I gave up and made a coffee and a sandwich.
I then said to myself. Silly boy. You’re not using it right. So, I looked up Java, the country west of Krakatoa (not east as in the movie title). Another disaster! In order of who’d visited them most, or linked to them most I got hundreds of sites on the software language, called Java, some coffee beans, another software called ‘Java Beans’ more encyclopaedia references and more maps, some programmers ones too that didn’t look much like the Island, near Krakatoa.
I then thought… wait a second. I’m stupid. I need to go the country search engine. There wasn’t one. What about the Restaurant in my region database… but Google doesn’t supply one.

That’s the problem. The list. As there are many, many more websites in the world every month. One for every company really and most things people talk about too. But Internet users are still going to Google and looking briefly down the list, which in all fairness is so much better than the old search engines we used, but it’s still just a list. And no one goes to the second page. (Well, some do rarely). All the categories that might be something to do with the keywords you put into the search box, in order of site size, the state of the site SEO, the links into the site (and out), the blogs associated with it, and a host of other algorithmic magical measures like code to keyword density and other bits are included and then Google pop out a relevance statistic that says… ‘this is what you were really looking for, with the two words you input…and here’s some other categories you may have been looking for. There you go.’

So, it’s my fault. I should have gone all Boolean – adding And and Not and But and other words to filter my search, and I should have added more and more words. But, eventually, you are writing and correcting and limiting and filtering till the cows come home, when you could just pick up the Yellow Pages, go to Restaurants, go to Indian, and glance through the 5 relevant listings that aren’t take-aways and pick one near you. You can’t go wrong really can you. And if there isn’t one in my area, it’s not that I haven’t put in the right boolean definitions and specifications, or that they haven’t SEOed their site, or that they have been banned for black hat coding… or that they don’t have a site (it’s a restaurant after all, they specialize in food). I’m also unlikely to get a map, distractingly, of India, or an encyclopedia page… or any of that. Because, the book, the Yellow Pages, has something called ‘Contents’ and something else called ‘Index’. Simple really. Genius. Why didn’t Google think of it?

In short, the world’s most popular search engine isn’t helping me, or letting me help it. It’s chucking in all of the categories in its index into one super clever list…. And I don’t really care if it’s searched 1.5 kazzillion sites in 0.5 of a milisecond… I’m still too impatient to go to page two. People are stupid. What can I say.

Time for balance. I really really really love Google, because I really love the web, and it’s one of the best things to happen to the web and computers ever in my opinion, on a par with the invention of DOS, or TCP/IP, or HPPT, or HTML. The Google link algorithm is right up there with them. And the company itself has revolutionised advertising for ever, and this promises to continue with their new optimisation tools. If I ever get a cat, I’ll call it Google. Google is well cool… but we, silly human’s need more help than the magical algorithm can possible imagine or compute. We need to be allowed to help the great Google do its good work. We need to be able to steer the behemoth. To be the captain of the ocean liner. We don’t need the machine to think for us all the time, foisting its ideas down our page one throats. We need to be able to choose, just a little bit, and give over more information more easily. I want my search engine to be more like when I’m phoning dial a directory, and saying something like.. ‘it’s an Indian restaurant, in my town. I don’t know what it’s called’ and the nice girl says ‘here’s a list of them. Is it Tandoor? Chaian… Sindar?’ and I choose. The search engine chat on the other hand would continue with me saying… ‘no, my town, in Ireland, not the one in Wisconsin with the same name. No, I don’t want a map, or driving directions. I know my town, I just can’t remember the name of the blood restaurant. I was there last week. It’s called Rajpuri or something. Sindar was a character in a film. That really interesting, but totally irrelevant. I’m hungry. I need a restaurant. A history of Indian restaurants you say? No thanks. Actually… Feck off. I’ll just bloody walk and won’t book. It’ll be quicker!’

But, there is a search engine which tries to do this. I think it’s going in the right direction and I think others, even Google, will have to follow. The site is an old one, and it’s changed its name recently. I used to sillily be called ‘Ask Jeeve’s’ (what a funny joke that was), but is now simply called ‘Ask’. Better! When I put Indian restaurant into Ask, I still get lots of categories, but they are in little boxes or along the side bar, so I can see them. I still see I can have maps, encyclopaedia bits, recipes… all sorts of information, but I can now see what categories these sites are in. They’re not in a single bloody list running to 50 pages. In Ask, I can then click on the appropriate category, and it's filtered. (Just like picking restaurants in Yellow Pages).

Why am I talking about Ask. Well, because I was reminded of it recently when visiting the new Ireland.com. The programming behind Ireland’s newest, biggest and best search engine ever, and it’s similar to Ask, not Google. And, I really like it. I think it will work. I think it’s cool. Ireland.com reminds me of what Local.ie aimed for in 1998 years ago, with its little Bebo style publishing tool, and super categorisation system but Ireland.com is doing it better, and it’s the right time for Ireland and for the state of social and net development. And, best of all, it’s automatic. Clear categorisation, great professional content… all organised, all neatly laid out. This is something you can’t see from the front page of Ireland.com, especially if you are looking for Irish-times.com, but as soon as you search, there you go. It doesn’t matter how many pages or sites are generated in Ireland, the findings for this search engine won’t be cluttered, ever. Because they are categorised.

We humans need categories, because we have too much stuff called the same thing. We don’t have category words in our language (or symbols as with Japanese). This is why we have a Dewey Decimal system for libraries and IBAN numbers, and that’s just for books. We need categorization for everything humans think about, need, talk about, make, say, eat, lust after, go to… all of it. It’s a classification nightmare. Too many categories to think of, but I think it’s what the net needs.
Great categorisation.

You see, when I’m honest, I don’t there is a chance in hell that any mathematical algorithm can keep pace with all the information on the web. I believe that the term bandied around time and again in the late 90s –‘information overload’ needs to a reintroduction. I think that shortly, very shortly, humans will notice that they’re missing out by seeing the web through the blinkers offered by Google page one, and some pay per click ads, which, by the way, are getting a bit too snappy and salesy and generic for my liking… (Though, when managed well these do work, and are a super efficient spend. No doubt about it. The proof is there.)

So currently 99% of some age groups use Google almost every day. The reason is that Google is the best search engine. But, the job isn’t done. Much more to do… and hopefully, Google will get more like Ireland.com. Like Ask. Categorically.
And as a happy conclusion to this barrage of frustration I looked up Indian restaurant in my home town on Ireland.com. Bingo. There they were. Perfect. And the one I was looking for. And then I even got the menu and the prices for each dish on Menupages.ie indexed by the Ireland.com site, the phone number, and the maps... all perfectly relevant, neatly laid out, and more than I could ever have hoped, or got, from Google or Yellow Pages for that matter. Howsat! I’ll so be back to Ireland.com.

Oh, and as a PS, when I showed Mrs. Kelly the map, ‘we’ decided ‘we’d’ prefer to eat Italian! The search engine that can include woman-think into its algorithm will be seriously popular, but mus remain the stuff of science fiction for now. We live in hope.

Monday, 9 June 2008

Irish Broadband Penetration Reaches 83% of Internet Users

I just did some trending on Broadband a bug bear of mine. Why? Well, people keep telling me there’s a broadband penetration problem in Ireland, and on the radio at least, they keep interviewing someone living well out of reach of roads, never mind a broadband connection. Everyone I know has access to broadband, so, it just didn’t feel right. It didn’t stack up. And, it turns out, it doesn’t stack up. It’s simply wrong.

The reason is the research is concentrating on home broadband connections and not home and work and school/university and café’s and the like, people were being given a false and damaging impression of Internet use and penetration in Ireland. The reason for this is the research is done by the traditional door to door method, from traditional research companies. It’s all they can count with the method. For the background to the discussion see my old post, Broadband by Any Other Name Would Work as Fast. My point is simply that in a time of increasingly mobile Internet use, the use of ‘any broadband connection’ is broadband use, and ‘at-home’ broadband, isn’t the point.

As I said, I did some trending, including the latest Net Behaviour Report data, Wave I 2008 and the findings are fantastic, and make a whole lot of sense. Pay special attention to the last column.



In 2007, 83% of Irish Internet users reported that they had access to broadband, and they used it. In 2008, this is 86%, and if we trend this out to 2011, it’s 95%. At home broadband is also growing, according to broadband users. So, 83% of 2 million, means that 1.66 Million Irish Internet users, access the web at broadband speed, from various locations. Good news.

But why, when I ask 1600 Internet users what their Internet connection speeds are like do many more of them tell me they have broadband connection than are reported in the mainstream media? Why, when I trend this on a 3000 sample, with sampling points over 2 years, is the news so good in the long term?

Well, I could bore you with 20 reasons, and get passionate about the whole thing. But, the statistician and researcher in me tells me not to be too defensive. To take the data as it is presented by the sample, interrogate its validity, and once it passes the tests, acknowledge its statistical truth. This is what they said. These findings are significant. It’s not only true for my sample, its true for the population. Job done.

Common sense told me there’s loads of broadband access out there for those that want it, and that everyone who needs it, can get it, and they do. The stats back this up. There is no broadband problem in Ireland. There’s a measurement and perception one however.

There’s also a need to push the debate along. Most broadband in Ireland is painfully slow. Many ‘free’ broadband packages give not much more than 1mbs. This works, but you couldn’t, for example, watch a video on YouTube. Here, at work we’re using 16mbs, which is as fast as it gets in Ireland, more or less, and we can do what we need to do. At home I use 3G 3.6mbs, which, again, does the job, but its so much slower. 1mbs means that big pages will make the browser time out. Big mails will also time out, especially if you’re using webmail. Many people use the Internet to send or upload pictures, and 1mps precludes this use for anything over a 3mg attachment.

So yes, we have broadband, but for most, no, it’s not quick enough. So, let’s move on the debate, and concentrate on what’s really at issue. Not just any broadband at home, but good broadband wherever you can get it.

Widget 101*

What are widgets?
– Widgets (or gadgets and sometimes apps) are tiny web-enabled applications that distribute content to users across the internet (David Smith 2008)

OK. That’s a broad definition. What’s a tiny web enabled application mean? Well, a little program that allows people to connect with content, and lots of other people. I suppose you could say RSS allows connections with content, widgets allow connections with people using content. Some widgets are embedded into social networks, like Facebook, while others are downloadable applications that sit on your desktop, or do the same thing. The problem with the latter is most virus checkers, and firewalls, don’t let you install them. Those on social networks can be huge.

But, things are more complicated than that. I need to differentiate widgets from two new concepts that are important, because they describe something very different from a programming and operations point of view. Alongside widgets are found 'applications', and 'gadgets'. Loosely, all of these are referred to as widgets, and there's debate as to where the line should be drawn, but all are sure, there is a line. Somewhere. I'll have a go. Briefly.

Gadget: a mini-program that's downloaded to your desktop, that talks to a database, maybe like an international clock, currency convertor, or news ticker.

Widget: a mini-program that's downloaded to a blog, or website, and doesn't speak to the site database (the pacman or google thingy on this site are widgets).

Application: a program that exists on a website, typically a social network site, that interacts with the websites databases through the website API. There are many facebook applications, like that Vampire one, and some new ones for geo-location of mobile phones that are simply too big, and embedded in the site structure through the site API, to be called widgets.

Clear as mud. Yeah... I know. But work with it and it starts to sink in. For the rest of this article I'll talk loosely, but keep these definition parameters in mind. I'll turn it round to where you'll find them, and see if it helps. Desktop program - gadget (limited / no database integration with site or PC); Blog game - widget (some added website interaction, no serious integration), Social Website API and database - application (full website integrated program functionality). An application is the biggest and most important of these three, and also the most expensive to design. Beware of super-enthusiastic clients who say they quickly want one of those widget things, and then briefly describe a full website application. They won't see the difference, and if the don't have a million squids in their back pocket... keep your eye on them, and slowly leave the room in reverse. Shut the door, and RUN.

What type of content can be carried with a widget?
All web content can be carried widget-wise. Video, games, music, social networking links, ratings, polls n votes… Whatever you want really.

How do you go about developing a widget?
There are stages in widget development though. First, you have to create the program that does the ‘cool thing’ people will want to use. Then you have to get content for it. Then you find a distribution channel and only at that stage does the widget actually reach the pc, laptop or mobile to use it. It’s not a simple process, and, from an advertising clients point of view, fraught with confusions and misinterpretations. Generally widgets are developed by developers, for developers… who’ll invest considerable sweat equity in the hope that it flies. It’s not like viral advertising. When it works? It’s cool though.
A marketer that does not wish to develop their own widget should consider piggy backing on someone else’s widget. Distribution networks are the next hurdle. The usual ones are HI5, Bebo, Myspace and the other social networks with (often) open api’s

Who’s making them and what do they provide?
Lots of companies, like ClearSpring and WidgetBox for example. Widgets tempt the user into… well, downloading and using them. Users interact with the widget interface. At this point page impressions, unique users, click throughs, view throughs (post view impressions) and all the usual palaver for advertising can be served. These can often be cut by time, number of feeds, or geo-targetted.
Ding… A worked example
Ding permits registered users to see live updates of website content, and get offers in real time. It makes €60m per year from registrations alone… and a whole lot more from advertising on Ding.

Widget Reach
Widgets are reported to have been 60% and 70% cumulative reach of the Internet audience around the world at a given time. Don’t believe it? Neither did I… but then I thought about it. Most people don’t even know they are interacting with a widget at a given time. I was ‘bitten’ on Facebook recently (by a vampire… don’t ask), and without meaning to, I bit an old friend (oh the embarrassment). It was a widget. I joined Hi5, and was asked to join a quiz. I filled out a short interview on Linkedin… and these are the ones I’ve done. I’ve ignored many others. I’ve also inserted a few mini-widgets onto this blog. Did I know they were widgets? Well, I knew they were small working programs on my page, but I hadn’t put that name on them. So yes. I believe the stats on reach for all widgets. Widget use is nearly as popular as web use itself.
Some mobile widgets I’ve seen recently may well become bigger!

How many? How big is this?
Facebook has 8,000 widgets with 31M active daily users. 80% of widget interactions are carried by 1% of the widgets available. The ‘Slide’ widget is the ninth largest Internet company with 17% of global Internet users. For the initiated, Slide designed ‘Poke’, ‘Superpoke’ and the ‘Funwall’. Slide is in 200 countries. They’re on many sites. There are 87million widget installations on facebook alone. 63% of users have a ‘Slide’ widget. Slide is gynormous.

How do we measure their use
We can’t. Not effectively anyway. Comscore are trying, globally, but there’s no real demographics, and nothing for the Irish market. There are also problems with widgets counting video on YouTube for content shown on other sites. Some developers can track their own widgets, but nothing beyond impressions, unques etc. No demographics. I’m working on something that will measure their rate of growth, but it’s not ready yet.

So, that should give you a good intro to the world of widgets.
If you want more advice on what do to about Widgets, and what they can do for you. Or, if you have one, and aren’t sure of next steps, talk to Emmet at NetBehaviour.com.

*Note: This post borrows wholesale from an inspiring presentation given by David Smith of MediaSmith, in Barcelona in 2008 (with his permission of course). He’s the widget king. Thanks David!

Friday, 4 April 2008

How the Irish Use the Web

Well... After many trials and tests, we've decided to release The Net Behaviour Report into the market. We're very excited about it really. It was a serious challenge... producing a single mechanism for ongoing tracking of how the Irish use the Web. Counting pretty much every site Irish Internet users mention. 500 plus sites, anywhere in the world, commercial sites, news and media, social networks, travel, music, airlines, recruitment, property... the lot. Exploring all of their communication technology use. Running indexes to describe each demographic segment, and all the time checking to see if the data makes sense. Does it stack up? Well it does, and I really think we've done it this time. There's a sample of the data that can be downloaded from this site, on the side bar, and we'll be updating this on a regular basis with more sample releases, and tables and that. And we'll also put up snippets and interesting facts that emerge from the data as we find it. If you have any specific questions for me, don't hesitate to email.

This is real time research too.  We never turn it off, so we will be able to watch the web as it changes.  New sites coming out of nowhere and becoming hugely popular, while some fade away. New ways of linking, tagging, digging, twittering, flicring, sniffing and, of course, blogging.  New banking practices, entertainment sites, news sites, podcasts, video pages and messenger products.  How things have changed in the last few years, and they are likely to continue to change.  Becoming more complicated, more enmeshed with the real world, progressively linking more and more people with similar needs and interests in more efficient ways.  Well, we want to understand it, and The Net Behaviour Report will help no end.  Enjoy!

Tuesday, 18 March 2008

NB 10 Predictions for 2008

NB 10 Predictions for 2008


1) 80% Internet Access and More
2) Phone-on-Net, Net-on-Phone
3) Mobile Networking
4) IPTV Video Downloads
5) Net Literacy Becomes an Issue
6) Mobile Content Explosion
7) Buzz Increases
8) Beyond the Laptop
9) Delivery Divide for Net Content
10) Gaming Is a Bigger Deal

1) 80% Internet Access and More

Internet penetration? What is it? Well, if the question is, do people have access to the Internet, 80% or maybe even 90% of Irish will have. Especially if we recognise that the phone now carries Internet signals and emails. Also, if we recognise that there are café’s, schools, colleges and universities, friend’s houses, libraries and so many other areas to sit, type, read and watch online content.

When it comes to broadband, you can see from my previous posts that I think this is much higher penetration wise than is currently being measured… but, I also think Internet penetration itself is being massively underestimated.
So, 100% access to the Internet? Maybe not 100%, but a lot!


2) Phone-on-Net, Net-on-Phone

This will be a time where mobile net use will come into its own. Huge marketing drives are making it common knowledge that you can do so much netwise on the little yoke in your pocket.
iPhone will bring this home to the Irish market in a big way. The phone is no longer a phone, but a pocket laptop phone PC thingy. With WiFi and/or 3G, the world of Internet pages is your oyster.


3) Mobile Networking

A new but a cool thing that changes the way we think about the web, and our phone. Where are your friends these days? Mobile Bebo, Facebook and whatever takes your fancy are on your phone. Twitter can give you some information, but what about colleagues? Or people in a different city? Well, mobile networking links with GPS phone location information, and you’ll can to see where your friends are, and, because your phone has been located, you’ll receive ads from the café across the street. The phone tells the website you are on where it is.

4) IPTV Video Downloads

Very cool video on your phone. You’ll need Wifi hotspots for streaming currently, as most phones don’t have a 3G capacity, and the cost based on current billing would be prohibitive. With WiFi, it isn’t though. Ads in videos and TV content will be pre-roll, post-roll, or interstitial, and will give a good idea of how much of the video is actually watched. Downloaded video won’t tell you much though.

5) Net Literacy Becomes an Issue

Some people and ad agencies too, just don’t ‘get’ the net, and probably never will. It’s their second language, at best. They could be said to be a real world monoglot. The truth is, if you don’t live in the net, you don’t get the net. In the net? Well, for this sort of literacy and fluency I’m saying you have to acknowledge that the Internet is an experience, not a set of facts or reference points, like other one directional flat media. Experiential knowledge!
Imagine you are talking to someone who’s got a brochure of Paris, or who’s Googled it, when you’ve actually sat outside the Pompidou centre watching the performers, eating your baguette, and drinking cheap wine. You get it, and you can tell pretty quickly they’re making it up and don’t have the slightest clue of this rich, stimulating, interactive space. Computer and net illiteracy is immediately apparent to the native. All it takes is a misused buzz word, or someone trying to sound in-the-know, and they are rumbled. So blaggers, don’t blag about how much you know about the net. It’s so obvious and so sad. Worse, if you’re the media business, once a client knows you don’t know, your credibility is completely shot.

Can you become a native speaker? Well, if you change your lifestyle completely, give it loads of time, and try to learn as much as you can as you go - yes. If not. No. Kids have an advantage, but they still have to do the work, and spend considerable time in net country.

6) Mobile Content Explosion

The net goes mobile. The screen gets smaller. The net and phone can do new things together − cool things. Mobile net content is different, because it’s consumed with different hardware, software and in a different physical context, and the content has to reflect this. Mobile content provision is set to become the new big thing for 2008.

7) Buzz Increases

Much excitement. Not quite a la 1998, but close, and a rather slower build about better businesses and business models that make real money and reach real people. The buzz online increases too as Web 2.0 becomes less of a buzz word, and more of a commonplace, with sites seamlessly linked to social networks, UGC, photos , digs and rating sites. The future is buzz, the future is net buzz.

8) Beyond the Laptop

Laptops? Great! I love them. But, they are still really quite big. I know, I’m using one now. But mobile web and pocket PC means they’ll look even bigger. So, they’ll shrink and slim down to net size 0. Not much of a prediction, things are getting smaller you’d think, but I recently purchase a foldaway keyboard for my PDA. Now I don’t need a laptop most of the time, because I can do pretty much the same stuff out and about. So, it’s not so much that laptops are getting smaller, or lighter, it’s that phones and PDAs are taking their place in a mobile phone/PC marketplace. Convergence is becoming physical, as laptops get smaller, while phones get smarter.

9) Delivery Divide for Net Content

Net content delivery used to mean a server, some files, and a request from a computer for a standard format. Now, this has fragmented beyond recognition. There is several servers, maybe not belonging to you, presenting some of your content, and feeds and links from elsewhere to networks for PC and mobile screens. Videos are embedded from YouTube and other to stream video content you may, or may not have produced. Video delivery is also divided between streamed and downloaded, the advantage being streamed means an advertiser can gauge if the ad was actually seen.
A second divide? It only takes one literate individual a few days to build the most complex and rich online experience, leaving even giant corporates to flounder in the tedium of web 1.0 brochure land.

10) Gaming Is a Bigger Deal

Gaming is the biggest thing to hit IP and the entertainment Industry, since the Internet itself and maybe moving pictures before it. It presents media buyers with new challenges like content and ad delivery, demographic reporting and automated tracking, streaming versus downloaded delivery, and real time playing and reporting. Online and offline IP facilitated gaming has changed the way many of us understand games, entertainment, film and even the narrative form − forever.

Thursday, 6 March 2008

Broadband by Any Other Name Would Work as Fast

I was intrigued by recent figures from Comreg. They showed many impressive percentages, but in my opinion give a very unclear picture of Internet access and use in Ireland. The problems stem from three sources: − the definition of broadband, the obsession with ‘at home’ connections, and the research method (door-to-door).

These three issues combined lead me to the conclusion that we are significantly underestimating broadband use in Ireland and Internet use in general.
The report starts by stating that 54% have access to the Internet as do 48% of households.

Out of those who access the Internet, the percentage who connected with a home broadband connection is 52% (eircom broadband). 9% connect through wireless broadband, 9% with WiFi, and 6% with ISDN. 3% connect with cable (NTL) and 1% with a mobile broadband connection (3G).

The problem is that, with the exception of ISDN, all of the connections above are broadband, but by another name. (ISDN is midband). The term ‘broadband’ refers to the speed of the connection, (anything over 512kbps), regardless of the mode of connection. It doesn’t matter if the connection giving that speed is wireless, mobile, via a cable, Wifi or 3G. If they invent some new connection type next year, and that delivers data at more than 512kbps… that’ll be broadband too. Based on these figures, and with this more accurate definition, the total broadband connectivity of Internet users is actually 75%, − that is, 75% of Internet users use broadband, and this is out of 54% of the total population who have Internet access. Does this include broadband 'at work', cafe, schools and colleges...? These, in my opinion, will take care of most of the rest. In short, very few Irish Internet users will be accessing the Internet through anything other than a broadband connection. They may not be at home at the time, but that’s not the point, is it? It’s also true that mobile broadband has proved to be a lot more cost effective and efficient solution lately. If you’re a student, or you know which café to visit, it’s probably free! Other research shows that some are using the one broadband connection for TV, music downloads, Skype (VOIP) phone calls, radio and office/education purposes. And why not. It’s so much cheaper (NB/MIR 2007/1).

The report says that only 13% have dial up speed at home. I think that some of these may also have broadband at work, or university, or with Wifi through a laptop. The report doesn’t clarify. But, I’m more inclined to believe the number with only dial up access to the Internet is actually much smaller.

The report then says that only 4% say their broadband speed is 512 kbs or less, but this wouldn’t be broadband speed anyway. 28% say their connection speed is between 1 and 3mbs, which is a good workable speed, and 18% between 4 and 6Mbs, which is pretty fast. But intriguingly 51% of broadband users don't actually know the speed of their broadband connection at home. This begs the question − why do so many people not know the speed of their broadband at home? Are the researchers reaching the right people in the household? The ones who set up the connection? I think it’s a problem to be explored in more depth, and it may be a limit of door-to-door research. I’d have expected that more people would know their net speed, but this report suggests that that this is not the case. (Perhaps it’s simply the case that mobile broadband users aren’t at home.)

Growth, Drivers and the Future

Younger users’ consumption of online gaming, uploading photos, downloading videos and use of VOIP is driving increasing broadband speeds. An increase in the choice of connection vehicles, such as WiFi and mobile is also aiding penetration. Increasing levels of home broadband usage will soon affect bandwidth (contention) and home broadband speeds, though, currently most are happy with their home Internet connection. 3G is unlikely to encounter have such bandwidth issues in the foreseeable future, because there are no wires.

I predict the next year, especially with Christmas, will see an enormous growth in mobile broadband penetration nationally necessitated by poor home broadband access, and must have gadgets like iPhone and Vodafone / 02 3G. There will also be a huge growth in Internet access and use. The satisfaction levels with these modes of Internet connection are very high. Growth will happen mostly amongst younger groups, and those who don't own their own home. While such penetration is only at 1% currently, I think 3G could grow to as much as 10% or greater, bringing total broadband penetration/access among Internet users toward 85%, and total Internet use towards 65 or even 70% (taking into account the growth of non mobile access sectors). So many free Wifi hotspots have sprung up in Dublin in the last year and I’m sure the number will only increase. (This is huge, as, after all, Dublin is where half the county lives or works.) The online gaming industry will probably push Internet and broadband further, again, driven by the Christmas season. We can expect to see growth in Mobile Video and IPTV and these will increasingly be 3G enabled for many segments.

Some say that broadband speed is dropping, but this is a mistake stemming from the fact that they are only looking at individual cases of connection problems, and ‘at-home’ broadband. At-home broadband is becoming a largely irrelevant concept as laptops are increasingly prevalent and net enabled phones, or smartphones become commonplace. At the same time they note that dial up Internet access, and even fixed line telephone use is falling, while VOIP is growing. There’s a need to join the dots here. If 29% are making VOIP calls elsewhere and through other means... they are, of course, accessing the net elsewhere at broadband speed, and no doubt through the same mechanisms. It's the only way to get Skype to work properly.
iPhone and 3G, will push broadband and Internet penetration further in the coming year. Such must-have gadgetry has always driven technology take-up and net use just as the iPod made mobile music and related services like iTune super-popular. Downloaded mobile video and TV will also grow, and is gaining traction in countries such Denmark, Austria, Germany and Finland.

Tuesday, 4 December 2007

IPTV: TV Advertising to Fall Apart

For years now, people have been predicting the demise of TV and TV advertising. But there wasn’t much substance to these predictions and they seemed somewhat far-fetched. However, when Bill Gates makes predictions and acts upon them by launching Microsoft IPTV it is hard not to take notice. Actions speak louder than words after all, and Bills actions are big actions.

What he’s saying in speeches, and predicting is also a lot more subtle and specific than the mutterings of crystal ball gazers heretofore and I think he’s absolutely right, and what he predicts is, in fact, inevitable. The time frame is the only thing that is in question.

In speeches he’s saying that the TV advertising business model, where the vast majority of traditional ad spend goes will fall apart over the next five years, when the new type of news-on-demand interactive TV formats come into their own. Google, and Yahoo! also have IPTV offerings, and services like Joost, Babelgum, 4OD stimulate this growth.

That’s the technology, and how often have you seen articles on the net telling you there is a new offering that will change everything. However, this is different! (Don’t they all say that?) I think this is different because three things are happening in tandem and when these all move together, change happens. Yes, firstly the technology has developed and advanced, but secondly society has also changed with peoples’ behaviours and media expectations shifting through YouTube, Video on demand and UGC. And finally there are necessary major economic shifts, through advertising, to pay for it all. That’s the full set of requirements for technological and social change. These are the three elements that explain why VHS succeeded where Betamax failed and then why DVD outstripped them both; why vinyl gave way to cassette, CD and then downloads changed the music industry forever; and also why IPTV will rock the world of TV advertising and change it forever. (In fact, more recently Amazon are trying the same trick for books with Kindle).

Yes, the technology is changing, but also peoples’ behaviour and the economics to pay for it all is shifting also. The technology has advanced as has the broadband speed to deliver the new formats, but also net ad spend has increased, by around 17% worldwide last year. While it’s still only a small proportion of total ad spend, in many countries it’s on a par with, or bigger than newspapers, radio and outdoor. Over perhaps 5 years, this is a tectonic shift in the world of advertising. TV ad spend however is the mother load and when this starts to come netwards you have to take notice. Bill Gates is predicting this will happen before we know it.
Traditional advertisers are therefore presented with opportunities, challenges and new paradigms to come to grips with. It must be understood that the net simply isn’t like TV, even though you can watch TV over the net. If you don’t take this on board, the TV advertising you deliver over the web simply won’t be effective. There are two reasons for me saying this:

1) The net is a 2 way active and interactive medium, while TV is a one way passive medium and consequently...

2) The net viewer is in active mode, rather than a passive one, so therefore has a totally different set of expectations and behaviours.
It’s TV, yes, but sent through a different channel, for an audience in a totally different state of mind.

TV is passive. Marshall McLuhan called it a ‘cold medium’, because you do nothing. The viewer simply sits back and video and audio wash over them, their only action being to change channel – if they can remember where they put the remote, it’s that long since they actually did anything (imagine losing your wireless mouse, or keyboard?). The modern net, with web 2.0, is not only active, it’s a super-heated hyperactive zone of multi-tasking – the opposite end of the scale, with viewer/users collaborating, communicating, sharing, viewing, reading, talking, listening and contributing to the medium all at the same time at super high speed. When you sit in front of a computer, your role, your expectations and your control is totally at odds with the TV experience. And consequently, where with TV people have to watch long tranches of boring ads because they have no choice but to watch, change channel, or put the kettle on; with IPTV they do have a choice and will ruthlessly flash to something more engaging in the blink of an eye immediately forgetting what they’ve just seen.

So, what can advertisers do to address this viewer promiscuity? Several things in fact and all of them have the IPTV web viewer firmly in mind. The IPTV viewer expects to be offered the capacity to engage with a product or brand on the Internet, (something they are never even offered on traditional TV). IPTV ads therefore need to offer some incentive to engage, like a special offer or reduction. There needs to be a URL to visit and view the product, if they have the time, or somewhere within the ad to register their interest for later, if they don’t. They might be given the capacity to leave contact information, or ring a special phone number on their mobile or work number and this number will relate to this specific ad campaign, not the whole company. In short, ads need to be tailored to the needs of the viewer. They need to have their requirements, interests and availability to the fore to ensure optimal success.

Online, there is also the capacity to know far more about the specific viewer of an ad than on TV. National research projects, like Net Behaviour’s MIR/NB Report means we have a very clear idea of the demographics of the Irish people who visit pretty much any site or Internet software, their frequency of doing so, and a whole tranche of other activity, such as their online purchasing activity. Pre and post ad view and click tracking can tell a considerable amount about viewers interests both through the sites they visit and where they go on these sites. Registration and social networking software means you can know each viewer's age, sex, interests, friendship networks and even what they buy. Ad view capping software also means that ads aren’t wasted through several views of the same ad, but rather views can be evenly spread amongst those who would have most interest, and only shown the optimal number of times to ensure the message has got across, but not too many to irritate.

So, while there are challenges presented to IPTV advertisers, these are completely outweighed by the important new opportunities the Internet offers, and the increased the capacity to make a sale. In short: For TV, getting the viewer from the point of actually seeing the TV ad to buying a product is largely in the lap of the gods, if they even remember seeing the ad. For IPTV advertisers on the other hand, they have a much greater say in what a viewer does immediately on seeing their product advertised. The audience is offered a much greater opportunity to engage with the message on the spot. They can explore the products specifications and price, learn about the producer, and even interact with the ad message asking the advertiser to contact them at a later date, and all without interrupting their reason for being on the site hosting the ad in question. They can also much more easily take the desired action – buy the product.

So, in conclusion: in this instance I think Bill Gates must be 100% right. TV advertising will move towards an IPTV model before we know it. The technology is there, the consumer will prefer it and the advertising will be more effective and efficient. But, the ad industry must just take on board that while it is a TV message, the Internet is a totally different channel, and one much better suited to engaging with the consumer.

Monday, 3 December 2007